Former Minister of Safety and Security Charles Nqakula has set South Africa’s political world alight with a blunt forecast: that President Cyril Ramaphosa will be arrested within months over the Phala Phala scandal, a case he insists has generated evidence too damning for prosecutors to ignore. The veteran ANC figure says the question is no longer whether action comes, but when.
Speaking on the African Renaissance Network in an interview with Dr Mbuyiseni Ndlozi, Nqakula drew on decades spent at the crossroads of politics and policing to deliver his sharpest public assessment yet of the president’s legal exposure.
“The arrest of Cyril Ramaphosa is not a question of if, it’s a question of when,” Nqakula said. “And that when is coming very, very soon.”
His argument rests on the volume of alleged wrongdoing tied to the 2020 theft at Ramaphosa’s Limpopo game farm, where a substantial sum of undisclosed foreign currency hidden in a sofa was stolen, and the alleged cover-up that followed.
“You’ve got money hidden in a sofa; you’ve got it not declared to the South African Reserve Bank; you’ve got it not declared to SARS; you’ve got people being kidnapped and taken across the border to Namibia; you’ve got the police being used illegally to investigate a robbery that was never reported,” he told Ndlozi.
“The list of crimes is endless. It’s endless! And you think the NPA can just sit on this forever? They can’t.”
When Ndlozi pointed out that nearly two years had passed without a prosecution, Nqakula pushed back, arguing that investigations of presidential scale are deliberately slow.
“No, they’re not sitting on it. They are investigating. A proper investigation takes time, especially when you’re dealing with a sitting president. You have to make sure your case is airtight. Because if you move against a president and you miss, you’re finished.”
Nqakula traced his confidence back to how he believes South African law enforcement truly operates, driven as much by self-preservation as by duty. He recalled a 1992 meting at Shell House, during apartheid’s twilight, with a senior police intelligence official.
“He said to me: ‘We know what you guys are doing. We’ve got a file on you. But I want to tell you one thing: we have served the National Party. We are now preparing to serve the ANC. We are professional policemen. We don’t want to go to jail for politicians.'”
That same instinct, he argued, holds firm today.
“The politicians think they can control the police, but they can’t. Because the average policeman, the guys who do the work, they’re worried about their pensions, they’re worried about their families, they don’t want to go to jail for a corrupt politician. So when the evidence is there, they will act.”
Why Nqakula Believes the Phala Phala Scandal Is Closing In on Ramaphosa
For Nqakula, a mix of legal momentum and political pressure is steadily shrinking Ramaphosa’s options. He frames the Phala Phala scandal not as a fading controversy but as a slow-tightening net.
“The pressure is building. The public is angry. The opposition is pushing. And inside the ANC itself, there are people who want him gone. So he is running out of time.”
His final word caried the tone of a man certain of the outcome: “If I was his lawyer, I would be telling him to prepare for the worst. Because the law is catching up with him, and there is nothing he can do to stop it.”
To make sense of how the saga reached this point, here is a breakdown of the key milestones:
| Date | Development |
|---|---|
| February 2020 | Alleged theft of undisclosed foreign currency at the Phala Phala farm |
| June 2022 | Former spy boss Arthur Fraser lays a criminal complaint |
| Late 2022 | Section 89 panel finds prima facie evidence of constitutional breaches |
| December 2022 | Ramaphosa survives an impeachment vote in the National Assembly |
The timeline shows how a single unreported robbery escalated into a constitutional and criminal storm that has trailed the president for years, with each stage raising fresh questions about transparency at the highest office.
The alleged offences Nqakula lists span several agencies and laws, which he believes makes the mater harder to bury. The spread of those allegations is set out below:
| Allegation | Body It Concerns |
|---|---|
| Undeclared foreign currency | South African Reserve Bank |
| Possible tax non-disclosure | SARS |
| Cross-border kidnapping | Criminal justice system |
| Misuse of officers for an unreported robbery | SA Police Service |
Taken together, the aleged breaches cut across financial regulation, tax law and policing conduct, which is precisely why Nqakula contends the National Prosecuting Authority cannot quietly let the file gather dust.
The Phala Phala affair first broke into public view in June 2022, when former State Security Agency director-general Arthur Fraser laid a complaint alleging that Ramaphosa had concealed the theft of millions of dollars from his wildlife farm. A parliamentary panel later found prima facie evidence of constitutional violations, yet the president weathered the impeachment push in December 2022.
Whether Nqakula’s prediction proves prophetic or premature, his intervention ads weight to a debate that refuses to die. With public anger simering, opposition parties circling and quiet dissent within ANC ranks, the former minister’s message lands as both a warning and a challenge to the institutions meant to act without fear or favour.