The Madrid Open semifinals have delivered exactly what tennis fans love: drama, upsets and two young stars who have refused to follow the script. In a tournament that has already blown apart plenty of predictions, Mirra Andreeva, Hailey Baptiste, Marta Kostyuk and Anastasia Potapova are now the final four standing in the Mutua Madrid Open, all chasing a maiden final berth in the Spanish capital.
For South African readers tracking the Madrid Open semifinals, Thursday’s line-up at Estadio Manolo Santana offers a fascinating contrast in styles and storylines. On one side, there is teenage prodigy Andreeva, who has been building her reputation on the biggest stages. On the other, Baptiste and Potapova are enjoying breakthrough runs that have turned them into the tournament’s great disruptors.
The day session opens with ATP action before Andreeva vs Baptiste is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. local time, while the night session closes with Kostyuk vs Potapova at around 9:30 p.m.. Both matches carry serious weight, with the winners not just moving one step closer to the title, but also claiming a place in the final for the first time in their careers at this event.
What makes this stage of the tournament so compelling is that none of the four semifinalists are here by accident. Each has had to survive pressure, momentum swings and, in some cases, outright chaos. This is not a familiar cast of champions cruising through a draw. It is a group of players who have found form at the right time and are now threatening to turn the Madrid Open into one of the most unpredictable WTA 1000 events in recent memory.
Andreeva vs Baptiste is the headline act for the day session, and it is a rematch with plenty of edge. Andreeva leads their head-to-head 1-0, having beaten Baptiste 6-1, 6-3 in the third round at Wimbledon 2025. But Baptiste arrives in Madrid with a very different kind of confidence after pulling off one of the biggest shocks of the tournament.
She stunned World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka in the quarterfinals, battling back from a set down to win 2-6, 6-2, 7-6 (6). What made the result even more remarkable was the fact that Baptiste saved six match points on her way to the biggest win of her career. That victory was not only a career milestone, but a statement that she can now live with the elite under serious pressure.
As we reported earlier in the week, Baptiste has embraced this Madrid run as a kind of personal redemption tour. She had already suffered a painful defeat to Sabalenka in Miami last month, and this time she flipped the script in spectacular style. She also has the added incentive of facing Andreeva, who ended her Wimbledon run in their only previous meeting.
For Baptiste, this is already a landmark fortnight. She has reached the semifinals of a WTA 1000 event for the first time, and in doing so became the lowest-ranked player in 40 years to beat the World No. 1 in a clay-court comeback victory. It is the sort of statistic that underlines just how extraordinary her run has been.
Andreeva, meanwhile, has not had a smooth path despite her talent and ranking. The World No. 8 has had to manage not only opponents, but her own emotions. After straightforward wins against Panna Udvardy and Dalma Galfi, she looked in control against Anna Bondar in the Round of 16, leading 5-1 in the deciding set.
Then things got messy. Bondar clawed her way back, even moving ahead 6-5, and Andreeva grew visibly frustrated. The tension spilled over, and she was left in tears after match point despite winning the match in a tiebreak. That kind of reaction might have derailed a lesser player, but Andreeva responded the right way.
One night’s rest was enough for her to reset, and she came back stronger against Leylah Fernandez, saving set points before advancing to the semifinals in straight sets. That ability to recover mentally may prove as important as any forehand or backhand in a tournament where margins are razor-thin.
Madrid Open semifinals history also favours the teenager in one respect: she has already enjoyed a superb clay season. She won the title in Linz and then reached the semifinals in Stuttgart, showing that her game has matured quickly on the surface. On Wednesday, she celebrated her 19th birthday, and the timing could not be more fitting for a player still writing the early chapters of what looks like a major career.
Madrid Open semifinals set up a breakthrough night for Kostyuk and Potapova
The second semifinal is just as intriguing, and perhaps even more open. Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova is a rematch, but this time with a final spot on the line rather than a fourth-round place. Their head-to-head is level at 2-2, and Kostyuk won their most recent meeting 6-3, 6-2 in the 2025 Madrid Round of 16.
Kostyuk may not carry the same hype as Andreeva, but she has arguably looked the most complete player of the four. She has reached the semifinals without dropping a set, and this is now her second WTA 1000 semi-final. She comes into the match on a nine-match winning streak at tour level, a run that includes her second career singles title in Rouen, France.
Her quarterfinal performance against Linda Noskova was particularly impressive. Kostyuk was relentless on return, creating 18 break-point chances in the first set alone and winning almost 83% of Noskova’s second-serve points. That is the kind of pressure that can break even the most composed opponent, and it explains why Kostyuk has looked so hard to stop in Madrid.
She has spoken openly about wanting to enjoy the process as much as the result, and that mindset appears to be serving her well. Kostyuk also knows that Potapova has already created one of the most unusual runs in the tournament, so this is hardly a straightforward assignment.
Potapova’s route to the last four has been one of the great stories of the event. After falling in qualifying, she became a lucky loser, then turned that second chance into something historic. Her win over World No. 2 Elena Rybakina in the Round of 16 was another major upset, coming via a 7-6 (8), 6-4 scoreline and giving her a fourth career win over a top-five player.
What makes Potapova’s campaign even more remarkable is how unlikely it looked at the start. She got into the main draw on 35 minutes’ notice after Madison Keys withdrew, and she has kept surviving ever since. She even needed to fight back against Karolina Pliskova after the Czech saved three match points and threatened to seize control in the deciding set.
Potapova, now representing Austria, has spoken candidly about the “miracle” nature of her run. But she has also made the point that second chances only matter if a player is ready to take them. So far, she has done exactly that, turning a scramble for survival into a genuine shot at a WTA 1000 final.
For tennis followers across South Africa and beyond, Thursday’s Madrid Open semifinals promise a rare blend of youth, momentum and pressure. Andreeva wants to keep proving she belongs among the elite, Baptiste is hunting the biggest result of her life, Kostyuk is trying to convert consistency into silverware, and Potapova is trying to extend a fairytale that began almost by accident. Whatever happens at La Caja Mágica, Madrid has already delivered one of the most compelling final-four line-ups of the season.