Online gambling is emerging as an unexpected pressure point for MTN South Africa, with the telecoms giant saying the shift in consumer spending is weighing on its prepaid business at a time when the local market is already under strain. In its 2025 integrated report, published on Wednesday, MTN said weaker prepaid momentum in South Africa is being worsened by the growing share of disposable income flowing into online gambling, while aggressive pricing from mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) is adding even more heat to the market.
The warning offers a sharp reminder of how broader social and economic trends are rippling through South Africa’s telecoms sector. For MTN, the issue is not just about airtime and bundles anymore. It is about how millions of prepaid customers are choosing to spend money in an environment where household budgets are tight, inflation remains a reality, and digital betting platforms have become far more accessible than they were a few years ago.
MTN’s latest numbers show just how uneven the picture has become across its markets. In South Africa, service revenue rose by only 2% in the year to 31 December 2025. That is a far cry from the rest of the group’s performance, where service revenue climbed 22.7% on a constant-currency basis. The contrast is even more striking when compared with MTN Nigeria, which delivered 54.9% growth, and MTN Ghana, which grew 35.9% over the same period.
The local business also felt pressure across several revenue lines. Fintech revenue dropped 8.4%, digital revenue declined 3.2%, and voice revenue fell 4.2%. The one area showing real traction was data revenue, which increased 4.5%, while enterprise service revenue grew a healthier 13.6% as corporate demand proved more resilient than consumer spending.
That mix had a clear impact on profitability. MTN South Africa’s Ebitda fell 10.2%, or 10.1% excluding a loss on the disposal of towers, while the margin narrowed by 2.9 percentage points to 34.5%. For a company that has long depended on South Africa as a key market, those figures underline why management is treating the local turnaround as urgent.
MTN South Africa prepaid business under pressure as gambling drains consumer spend
The group has now elevated the recovery of MTN South Africa prepaid business to one of its top priorities for 2026, alongside improving execution in fintech. MTN says the local telecoms market remains fiercely competitive, with macroeconomic pressure and a battle for consumer wallet share continuing to squeeze growth.
That is a familiar story in South Africa’s mobile industry, but the gambling angle adds a new layer. As we reported earlier, prepaid customers are often the first to cut back when money gets tight, and MTN now believes a portion of that spending is being redirected to online betting platforms rather than connectivity. In practical terms, that means less room for airtime top-ups, smaller bundle purchases and weaker customer activity overall.
The company’s response will focus on more tailored pricing and regional product offers. It also plans to use more granular bundle personalisation and improve channel efficiency. In plain terms, MTN wants to make its offers more relevant to specific customer groups instead of relying on broad, one-size-fits-all promotions.
Home connectivity is also being treated as a major growth area. MTN says it will push harder on fixed-wireless access and fibre-to-the-home products, which it sees as more stable long-term revenue streams than some of the lower-margin prepaid activity. That makes sense in a market where consumers are increasingly looking for bundled, household-level connectivity rather than just mobile data.
The company also raised prices in February 2025, according to the report, and is leaning on post-paid contracts as a relatively more resilient part of the business. Even so, MTN admits that MVNOs continue to shape both competition and pricing in the South African market, keeping pressure on margins and customer retention.
The leadership change at the top of MTN South Africa has also put fresh eyes on the problem. Ferdi Moolman, formerly chief executive of MTN Nigeria, took over as CEO of MTN South Africa late in 2025, replacing Charles Molapisi, who moved into the role of group chief technology and information officer. Moolman arrives with experience from one of MTN’s toughest and most dynamic markets, and his appointment suggests the group wanted a turnaround operator for the South African business.
For MTN Group overall, the year was much stronger. The company reported service revenue of R218.5-billion, up 22.7% in constant currency, marking its strongest top-line growth in more than a decade. Ebitda before once-off items rose 36.8% to R98.5-billion, while the margin improved by 5.4 percentage points to 44.5%. Operating free cash flow before spectrum and licence payments surged 81.7% to R57.1-billion.
That broader success makes the South African slowdown stand out even more. MTN’s home market is not collapsing, but it is clearly underperforming against the group’s other major operations. For investors, that matters. For the company, it means the turnaround of MTN South Africa prepaid business is no longer just a local operational issue — it is a strategic priority.
The real question now is whether the group can stabilise its prepaid base in a market where consumers are stretched, betting spend is rising, and rivals are fighting hard on price. MTN clearly believes the answer lies in sharper offers, better network-led products and a stronger push into home connectivity. Our view is that 2026 will tell us whether those moves are enough to offset the pressure already building in South African consumers’ pockets.