5G Set to Dominate South Africa’s Fixed-Wireless Market as Broadband Revenue Eyes R82.8-Billion
South Africa’s broadband market is on a strong upward trajectory, with revenue projected to hit R82.8-billion by 2029, supported by 3.7 million new active subscriptions. This is according to the latest SA Broadband Report published by ICT research and analysis firm BMIT, which paints an optimistic picture of the country’s connectivity landscape over the next several years.
The market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%, a momentum largely fuelled by the residential segment. Within this space, both fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) and fixed-mobile broadband solutions continue to record strong subscriber uptake, reflecting growing consumer appetite for reliable, high-speed internet access.
Perhaps the most compelling takeaway from the BMIT report is just how rapidly 5G technology is reshaping the fixed-wireless access (FWA) landscape. The analyst firm projects that 5G will account for 67% of all residential FWA connections by 2029, a significant leap from the 35% recorded in 2024. This surge is being driven by aggressive rollouts from major operators including MTN, Vodacom, Rain, and Telkom, all of which are offering competitively priced, quasi-uncapped data packages to attract subscribers.
On the fibre front, FTTH deployment slowed somewhat between 2023 and 2024 following years of rapid expansion. However, BMIT anticipates a renewed push as operators begin targeting lower-tier urban areas that were previously left out of the initial rollout wave. Residential fibre connections are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.8% through to 2029, underpinned in part by Vodacom’s recent acquisition of a co-controlling stake in Vumatel’s parent company, Maziv — a move that signals fresh capital and strategic direction for fibre infrastructure expansion.
South Africa’s Broadband Affordability Gap Remains a Major Barrier
Despite the promising growth numbers, the report highlights a stark reality on the ground. As of mid-2025, fewer than 30% of South African homes had fibre infrastructure passing in front of them, and data from Icasa showed the country had just 2.47 million home fibre connections as of last year. The growth runway is undeniably long, but reaching lower-income households continues to present serious economic challenges.
BMIT Managing Director Chris Geerdts noted that the broadband access market “continues to offer opportunity in the mid-term, particularly for those operators with a business model suited to deployment to lower-tier households.” His comments underscore the importance of innovation in both technology delivery and pricing strategies.
Adding complexity to the outlook is a contrasting report released by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA). That study warned that South Africa would need between R108-billion and R142-billion in cumulative investment by 2035 just to connect all households to 100Mbit/s broadband. The DBSA’s South Africa Digital Infrastructure Investment Study revealed that while 98% of the population has 4G coverage, actual usage remains significantly lower — a gap driven primarily by affordability, not availability.
The DBSA findings are sobering: a basic smartphone costs more than 16% of the universal basic minimum monthly wage, and the majority of South Africans continue to rely on prepaid data bundles rather than fixed broadband subscriptions. This means the market that BMIT is measuring — though growing healthily — still excludes a significant portion of the population.
There is also the unresolved question of satellite broadband, specifically Starlink, which remains locked out of the South African market due to an ongoing licensing and black economic empowerment standoff. Should regulators find a resolution, satellite connectivity could dramatically alter the competitive dynamics — particularly in rural and underserved areas where neither fibre nor 5G FWA can currently justify the business case.
For now, 5G and fibre remain the dominant forces shaping South Africa’s near-term broadband growth story. The challenge ahead is not just building the infrastructure, but ensuring that the millions of South Africans currently priced out of the market can eventually participate in the digital economy that connectivity promises to unlock.