South Africans are heading into another punishing fuel adjustment, and the latest diesel price error has only added confusion to an already brutal round of increases. Even after government corrected a calculation mistake, the diesel price will still jump to a record level from midnight, with wholesale costs breaching R30 a litre for the first time.
The mix-up centres on a decimal point error that pushed the official wholesale diesel increase up by almost R1 a litre. On Monday, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources said diesel would rise by nearly R6.19 a litre from Wednesday. That figure was later found to be wrong.
The department had incorrectly treated a 93c relief measure as though it were 0.93c. In plain terms, a change meant to reduce the pain at the pump was nearly wiped out in the calculation process. That mistake inflated the published increase and left fuel watchers scrambling for clarity.
The corrected figure now shows that diesel should rise by R5.27 a litre, rather than the originally announced amount. That is still severe, but it is 92c less than the first official notice. An official from the department has since confirmed the error, and stakeholders were informed on Tuesday morning.
For motorists, transport operators and logistics firms, the headline remains grim. Updated figures released by the Central Energy Fund show that diesel wholesale prices will be R31.18 in Gauteng and R30.30 on the coast from Wednesday. Those numbers are lower than the incorrect R32.10 and R31.22 originally published, but they still mark a new and painful benchmark.
This means diesel will cross the R30 mark for the first time, even after the correction. In South African terms, that is a significant psychological and economic threshold. Diesel is the lifeblood of freight, agriculture, construction and public transport, so any sustained spike tends to feed through the wider economy quickly.
The pricing shock is being driven by a tense global oil market, and South Africa is not insulated from it. The war involving Iran has tightened supply conditions internationally, with the average Brent crude oil price sitting at about $101 over the past month, compared with below $65 in January. Damage to infrastructure and concern around the Strait of Hormuz have added even more pressure.
Diesel has been hit especially hard because international demand for the fuel remains high, while global refining capacity is tight. That combination has made diesel more expensive than petrol in some markets, and South Africa is feeling the effects through its import-based pricing system. As we reported earlier, this is not just an oil story — it is a supply-and-demand story with direct local consequences.
The diesel price error still leaves South Africa with a record fuel hike
The latest diesel price error has highlighted how sensitive the monthly fuel-setting process is, particularly when tax relief and international market movements are moving in opposite directions. In April, government cut the diesel fuel levy by R3 a litre to help cushion the economy during a fuel shock. In May, that relief was increased to R3.93 a litre, after an additional 93c was added.
That extra relief should have been reflected properly in the May calculation. Instead, the department’s initial formula appears to have treated the figure as 0.93c rather than 93c. It is a small decimal mistake on paper, but in fuel pricing it has very real financial consequences for households and businesses already under strain.
Petrol motorists are not being spared either. 95 unleaded petrol is set to rise by R3.27 a litre, taking prices to their highest level in almost four years. In Gauteng, 95 unleaded will cost R26.63, while coastal regions will pay R25.76. That is another blow for commuters who have already absorbed multiple rounds of inflationary pressure this year.
One factor partly offsetting the relief measures is the slate levy, which is sitting at almost R1.23 a litre this month. The slate account is used to settle differences between what fuel importers are allowed to charge and what they actually pay on volatile international markets. It is also affected by the rand-dollar exchange rate, which remains a major variable in South African fuel pricing.
When the slate account goes more than R500 million in the red, a levy is applied to recover the shortfall. That mechanism is designed to stabilise the system, but in practice it can deepen the pain for consumers when global prices are already elevated. For ordinary South Africans, the result is a sharp monthly reality check at the pump.
There is some forward planning from government, but little immediate comfort. The current fuel levy relief is expected to be halved in June, before being phased out and restored to pre-war levels in July. That means even if global markets ease slightly, local fuel prices may remain under upward pressure as tax relief is reduced.
For now, the focus is on the scale of Wednesday’s increase and the administrative error that briefly made it worse. While the corrected figures are slightly less punishing than first announced, they still point to a historic jump in diesel price levels and another difficult month for South African consumers. Our view is that the correction may have softened the blow on paper, but at the pump, the pain remains very real.