South African consumers should brace for a tougher two years in the market, with Vodacom Group CEO Shameel Joosub warning that the smartphone prices being paid at retail could climb sharply as global supply shocks, fuel pressure and component shortages collide.
Speaking to TechCentral on Monday, Joosub said the current squeeze on RAM supply is part of a wider inflation story that is already filtering through to electronics, network gear and transport costs. For ordinary buyers, that could mean pricier phones, more expensive laptops and fewer affordable choices on the shelf.
His comments land at a time when South Africans are already under pressure from high living costs, stubborn inflation and weak household spending. In practical terms, that means even a modest jump in handset prices can push many people towards cheaper devices or force them to hold on to old phones for longer than planned.
Joosub said the memory crunch is particularly severe. As he put it, some laptops and other equipment could become “as much as double” in price, depending on how the shortages play out and how manufacturers respond. The issue, he stressed, is not a passing inconvenience but a structural supply problem that could worsen.
The smartphone prices warning also raises a bigger question for the local market: who will absorb the hit? Manufacturers such as Apple and Samsung sit on strong margins, but there is no guarantee they will shield consumers from rising component costs. If they pass the full increase down the chain, the effect could be felt quickly in shops and online stores.
Joosub said that is where government policy could make a difference. One option, he argued, is to reduce or remove taxes on smartphones more broadly, not just the low-cost models already targeted by the state. That debate has become more urgent since Treasury moved to cut levies on entry-level phones.
On 1 April 2025, National Treasury scrapped ad valorem duties on smartphones priced at R2 500 or less, following lobbying by communications minister Solly Malatsi. The move was welcomed by the mobile industry, but critics argued it barely scratched the surface of South Africa’s affordability problem, especially for middle-income users who still cannot comfortably buy premium devices.
For many households, the reality is that the gap between low-end and mid-range smartphones remains wide. If prices rise again, consumers who were hoping to step up to a better handset may instead drop down to cheaper models, or simply postpone replacement altogether. That would be bad news not only for shoppers, but also for mobile networks and retailers relying on upgrade cycles.
Smartphone prices under pressure as RAM costs surge
The smartphone prices debate is being driven by a technical issue that most users never see: RAM, the memory component inside phones, laptops and critical network equipment. Joosub said RAM is used not only in consumer devices, but also in the base stations and core infrastructure that keep mobile networks running.
That means the current shortage is not just a retail problem. It is also a telecoms infrastructure problem, with the potential to affect the cost of rolling out and maintaining networks across South Africa. In a sector already spending heavily to keep pace with data demand, rising input costs can quickly eat into margins.
Joosub told TechCentral that Vodacom’s capital spending plans will remain unchanged for now, despite higher equipment costs. The company has already set aside a R12-billion capex envelope for the 2027 financial year, and that budget, he said, will not be altered because of the memory squeeze.
The reason for the shortage is global and closely tied to the AI boom. Hyperscale cloud operators are buying huge volumes of memory to power artificial intelligence systems, and manufacturers have responded by shifting production away from the chips used in phones and laptops. In other words, the same AI race driving innovation is also pushing up costs for everyday consumers.
According to reports from the sector, DRAM prices rose 172% in 2025, underlining just how dramatic the shift has been. Suppliers such as SK Hynix and Micron Technology have redirected output towards higher-margin high-bandwidth memory, leaving less capacity for the memory used in mainstream consumer electronics.
Then there is the fuel side of the equation, which is adding another layer of pressure. Joosub pointed to the impact of the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, which has helped drive up global oil prices and pushed inflation higher across supply chains.
In South Africa, that matters because diesel remains the main fuel used to move goods and services around the country. Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on 28 February, the price of diesel has reportedly risen by R12.76/l, adding further strain to logistics, distribution and final retail pricing.
That combination of higher component costs and more expensive transport is exactly why the smartphone prices outlook looks so grim. Even if retailers try to soften the blow, they cannot fully escape the reality of more costly imports, elevated shipping expenses and volatile currency and commodity conditions.
For Joosub, the key issue is duration. He warned that the current inflationary pressures may last at least 24 months, suggesting South Africans should prepare for a prolonged period of strain rather than a short-lived spike. Our view is that this makes affordability one of the defining consumer tech issues of the next two years.
The bottom line is simple: if global memory shortages persist, fuel remains expensive and manufacturers refuse to absorb more of the shock, smartphone prices in South Africa are likely to keep rising. And for a country where mobile devices are central to work, study, banking and daily life, that could hit far beyond the checkout counter.