The big chances Premier League table has thrown up some familiar names at the sharp end, but also a few surprises that tell the real story of how clubs have changed as the season has gone on. Across Matchday 35, teams scored 23 of 46 big chances, a 50 per cent conversion rate that ranks as the third-best return of the campaign. It is a useful reminder that in the Premier League, the difference between looking dangerous and actually winning games often comes down to what happens from six yards out.
For SA readers who follow the league closely, this kind of split-season analysis offers a more honest snapshot than the usual league table. A side can dominate possession, rack up shots and still be nowhere if it cannot turn high-value openings into goals. That is why the big chances Premier League table matters: it strips away some of the noise and shows which clubs are truly ruthless, which are wasteful, and which have found a late-season edge.
Opta’s definition of a big chance is fairly straightforward: it is a situation where a player is expected to score, often a one-on-one or a close-range effort with a clear sight of goal and only light pressure. In other words, these are the moments managers and supporters remember when seasons swing. And when we compare the first 18 games with the next 17, the shifts are revealing.
Brentford remain one of the league’s more efficient attacking sides, with 76 per cent of their shots coming from inside the box. Even though they average only 48 per cent possession, they continue to engineer good shooting positions. What has changed is the finish: their big chance conversion has fallen from 46 per cent to 33 per cent, and that has fed into a run of draws rather than wins. Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara have not been as clinical in the second half of the campaign, and that drop-off has cost them points.
At the other end of the trend line, Burnley are a cautionary tale. They began strongly, converting 52 per cent of their big chances in the first 18 matches, but have slipped sharply to 29 per cent in the last 17. Creativity has also dried up, falling to 1.2 big chances per 90, which leaves very little margin for error. It is exactly the sort of regression that can turn decent performances into poor results.
Everton have gone the other way. Their striker problem has eased, with Thierno Barry and Beto finally finding a rhythm. The pair have scored 12 of their 19 big chances in the last 17 games after managing only two of 14 earlier in the season. A much improved counter-attacking threat has helped too, with Everton’s fast-break xG per 90 rising from 0.05 to 0.15. That is a significant jump, and it shows how a team can become far more dangerous once the final pass and finishing improve.
The big chances Premier League table reveals late-season winners and losers
One of the standout stories is Nottingham Forest, whose survival push has been powered by a remarkable upturn in finishing. Over the first 18 games, they converted 38 per cent of their big chances; in the last 17, that has surged to 53 per cent, the best in the division. Morgan Gibbs-White has been central to that improvement, while Taiwo Awoniyi and Igor Jesus have also chipped in. Forest are not just scraping by — they are now turning half-chances into decisive goals.
Manchester City are a reminder that even elite sides can wobble when the finishing touch deserts them. Erling Haaland led the league early on with 32 big chances, scoring 15, but his output has cooled. In the last 17 games, he has had only 15 of City’s big chances and converted just five. That is still a strong number on paper, but by his standards it is a drop. Players like Antoine Semenyo and Nico O’Reilly have helped absorb some of the burden, while Savinho has endured a frustrating season with six big chances missed from six.
Manchester United have improved modestly in front of goal, with shot accuracy rising from 33 to 37 per cent and conversion up from eight to 12 per cent. The spread of chances has also shifted. Benjamin Sesko has come into his own, taking 14 big chances in the last 17 matches and scoring six, while Casemiro has become a threat from set pieces. It is not transformation, but it is progress.
For Arsenal, the upward trend is even clearer. They were poor in the first half of the season at converting big chances, but have become far more clinical since then. Viktor Gyokeres has led the charge, and his physical presence has given Arsenal a new edge in decisive moments. The Gunners’ conversion rate has climbed from 32 per cent to 39 per cent, which is exactly the sort of improvement that matters in a title race.
Brighton & Hove Albion have created more as the season has gone on, but their finishing has gone backwards badly. They moved from 2.1 big chances per 90 to 2.5, yet their conversion rate collapsed from 50 per cent to 23 per cent. Danny Welbeck has been steady, but Kaoru Mitoma has struggled badly, missing his last seven big chances. That lack of composure has blunted otherwise encouraging attacking play.
Bournemouth have also improved, even though they are shooting from outside the box more often. Their xG per shot has risen from 0.11 to 0.13, and young forward Eli Junior Kroupi has been particularly sharp. Evanilson has had a mixed season, while the team’s overall finishing has become more reliable since the midway point.
For clubs like Chelsea, the picture is far more alarming. They have gone through a brutal stretch, scoring just one goal from 94 shots across a six-match losing run and creating only seven big chances in that period. Joao Pedro has been one of the few bright spots, but Liam Delap and Alejandro Garnacho have both been wasteful. For a team with ambition and resources, that kind of end-product is simply not good enough.
At Liverpool, the story has been more nuanced. Mohamed Salah has not matched his usual standards, while Virgil van Dijk has surprisingly missed more big chances than any other defender. Hugo Ekitike started well before injury cut his season short, and the hope from a Liverpool perspective is that the attacking group can reset next term.
Elsewhere, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Wolves have all had different versions of the same problem: not enough clinical finishing at key moments. Spurs in particular have seen their conversion rate fall sharply, while Villa’s numbers are down to a level that should concern supporters. Newcastle have struggled to replace the attacking threat they lost, and Wolves’ finishing has not done them any favours in a difficult season.
What this big chances Premier League table shows, above all, is that form is not always about volume. It is about timing, quality and nerve. Teams that were shaky early on — Everton, Forest, even Arsenal — have found answers. Others, including Burnley, Chelsea and Aston Villa, have been punished for every missed chance. And as we have seen across the division, if you cannot finish when it matters, the table will eventually make the point for you.